Arizona’s real estate market is undergoing a notable shift in mid-2025, with Phoenix emerging as one of the most buyer-friendly markets in the nation. Inventory has risen since last year with about six thousand more homes on the market compared with last year at this time, and sellers are adjusting prices as homes spend more time on the market. Contract ratios, according to the Cromford Report, stand at just over 30%, compared with nearly 45% last year at this time. Active listings in Phoenix are up 46% year-over-year, with the number of expired listings increasing by 53% compared with June 2024. These trends put Phoenix alongside places like Tampa and Denver as a top market for buyers looking for value (New York Post, June 24, 2025).
This shift has also resulted in longer average market times for properties. An average home in Maricopa County now spends almost 76 days on market, according to the Cromford Report. Axios reports that the median time on market is 50 days nationally. This trend reflects a broader cooling in demand, partially driven by elevated mortgage rates, which continue to hover around 7%. These rates have created an affordability challenge, especially for first-time buyers (Axios Phoenix, June 24, 2025).
At the same time, sellers are being forced to reassess expectations. Gone are the days of quick bidding wars and instant offers. Many homeowners are choosing to list their homes at competitive prices or are offering incentives like mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers. Builders in the Phoenix metro area are also adjusting to this market reality, frequently offering promotional financing options such as 4.99% rate buydowns to move inventory (Axios Phoenix, June 5, 2025).
Underlying these market trends is a surprising shift in migration patterns. Maricopa County, long one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, experienced a net domestic migration loss of about 1,800 residents in 2024. This marks the first such decline in over a decade and contributes to the rising inventory and moderating home prices (Arizona Republic, June 2025). Despite this cooling, home prices in Phoenix are still roughly 50% higher than in 2019, indicating that while the boom has softened, there’s no crash in sight. We are just seeing a return to a more balanced market.
For buyers, this environment offers increased leverage. More homes are available, price reductions are more common, and negotiation power is growing. Redfin reports that sellers now outnumber buyers by 34% nationwide. However, the benefit is tempered by high borrowing costs, which continue to limit monthly affordability (Redfin Market Data, June 2025).
For sellers, the key is realistic pricing and patience. Overpricing a home in this environment could result in it sitting for months without serious offers. That said, slowing inventory growth may help stabilize prices as we head into late 2025, especially if mortgage rates drop or buyer demand rebounds modestly.
In summary, Arizona’s real estate market is trending toward correction rather than collapse. With homes sitting longer, price reductions becoming the norm, and migration leveling off, the market is cooling, but not crashing. Buyers are gaining the upper hand, while sellers must adapt with smart pricing and strong marketing strategies.
Works Cited:
New York Post. “Top Five Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets Offer Price Cuts and Increased Inventory.” June 24, 2025.
Axios Phoenix. “Nearly Half of Phoenix Home Listings Are ‘Stale.’” June 24, 2025.
Axios Phoenix. “Buyers Gain Upper Hand in Valley Housing Market.” June 5, 2025.
Arizona Republic. “Maricopa County Sees Net Migration Loss for First Time in a Decade.” June 2025.
Redfin Market Data. “Housing Market Update.” June 2025.
